--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  TSCS_Log
       log:  C:\PSRM Replication Files\TSCS_analysis.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  16 May 2017, 08:01:15

. 
. *** Load TSCS panel dataset
. use "TSCS.dta", clear

. 
. ********************************************************************
. *** Generate 'between' and 'within' terms at the electoral level ***
. ********************************************************************
. *** Notes: Depending on their level of measurment (country-year or election period) 
. ***        the "between" terms (country averages) and the longitudional within terms need to be estimated seperately. 
. ***        The estimation of interaction terms, squared terms and logged variables need to be done before with the original data!
. 
. *** Generate averages of SWD by election periods (required for Figure 1)
. egen swd_perc_mean = mean(swd_perc), by(elec_id)

. 
. *** Keep only one observation per election as not to give any election period more weight in the calculations simply because it is covered more often.
. bysort elec_id: gen counter_n= _n

. keep if counter_n==1
(533 observations deleted)

. drop counter_n 

. 
. *** Generation of squared terms
. gen enep1_sq=enep1*enep1

. gen gallager_index_sq=gallager_index*gallager_index

. 
. *** Generation of logged term
. gen tier1_avemag_log=log(tier1_avemag)
(2 missing values generated)

. 
. *** Generation of country mean terms
. egen enpp1_mean = mean(enpp1), by(country)

. egen enep1_mean = mean(enep1), by(country)

. egen gallager_index_mean = mean(gallager_index), by(country)

. egen tier1_avemag_mean = mean(tier1_avemag), by(country)

. egen tier1_avemag_log_mean = mean(tier1_avemag_log), by(country)

. egen enep1_sq_mean = mean(enep1_sq), by(country)

. egen gallager_index_sq_mean = mean(gallager_index_sq), by(country)

. 
. *** Generation of within terms
. gen enpp1_w = enpp1 - enpp1_mean
(1 missing value generated)

. gen enep1_w = enep1 - enep1_mean

. gen gallager_index_w = gallager_index - gallager_index_mean

. 
. ******************************
. *** Generation of Figure 1 ***
. ******************************
. *** Note: Figure 1 has been formatted with the Graph Editor afterwards. 
. ***       The corresponding .gph files have been uploaded in the folder "Figures and Tables".
. 
. *** Estimate percintiles for election periods with very high, high, low and very low SWD.
. sum swd_perc_mean, detail

                        swd_perc_mean
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%      13.1425           7.99
 5%      21.6025           8.37
10%      25.8525          12.59       Obs                 300
25%      36.0115         13.695       Sum of Wgt.         300

50%     49.58917                      Mean           51.01554
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      19.14135
75%     66.23479          89.77
90%     77.95259          90.25       Variance       366.3912
95%     80.94444          90.93       Skewness       .0806106
99%        90.01       93.09203       Kurtosis       2.086069

. gen swd_perc_mean_cat=""
(300 missing values generated)

. replace swd_perc_mean_cat="Very Low" if swd_perc_mean<= 36.0115
swd_perc_mean_cat was str1 now str8
(75 real changes made)

. replace swd_perc_mean_cat="Low" if swd_perc_mean> 36.0115 & swd_perc_mean <= 49.58917
(75 real changes made)

. replace swd_perc_mean_cat="High" if swd_perc_mean> 49.58917 & swd_perc_mean <= 66.23479
(75 real changes made)

. replace swd_perc_mean_cat="Very High" if swd_perc_mean> 66.23479
swd_perc_mean_cat was str8 now str9
(75 real changes made)

. 
. *** Figure 1:
. graph twoway (scatter enep1 gallager_index if swd_perc_mean_cat=="Very Low", msymbol(triangle) msize(medsmall) mcolor(gs12) legend(label(1 "Very low SWD"))) (scatter enep1 gallager_index if swd_perc_mean_cat=="Low", msymbol(triangle) msize(
> medsmall) mcolor(gs8) legend(label(2 "Low SWD"))) (scatter enep1 gallager_index if swd_perc_mean_cat=="High", msymbol(circle) msize(medium) mcolor(gs6) legend(label(3 "High SWD"))) (scatter enep1 gallager_index if swd_perc_mean_cat=="Very H
> igh" , msymbol(circle) msize(medium) mcolor(black) legend(label(4 "Very High SWD"))) 

. graph save "Figure 1.gph", replace
(file Figure 1.gph saved)

. 
. *** Keep only the "between" and "within" terms of the electoral variables that vary by election periods
. keep elec_id  enpp1_mean enep1_mean gallager_index_mean tier1_avemag_mean tier1_avemag_log_mean enep1_sq_mean gallager_index_sq_mean enpp1_w enep1_w gallager_index_w   

. 
. *** Save this dataset for merge with the original dataset 
. save "TSCS_help.dta", replace
file TSCS_help.dta saved

. 
. *******************************************************************
. *** Generate 'between' and 'within' terns at the country level  ***
. *******************************************************************
. *** Load TSCS panel dataset
. use "TSCS.dta", clear

. merge n:1 elec_id using "TSCS_help.dta" // add country means and within terms at the electoral level

    Result                           # of obs.
    -----------------------------------------
    not matched                             0
    matched                               833  (_merge==3)
    -----------------------------------------

. drop _merge

. 
. *** Generation of squared term
. gen govfrac_sq=govfrac*govfrac

. 
. *** Generation of interaction term
. gen govfrac_gallager=govfrac*gallager_index

. gen enep1_gallager=enep1*gallager_index

. 
. *** Generation of group mean terms
. egen swd_perc_mean = mean(swd_perc), by(country)

. egen growth_rate_mean = mean(growth_rate), by(country)

. egen GDPpc_mean = mean(wdi_gdppccur), by(country)

. egen gini_mean = mean(gini), by(country)

. egen icrg_qog_mean = mean(icrg_qog), by(country)

. egen govfrac_mean = mean(govfrac), by(country) 

. egen govfrac_sq_mean = mean(govfrac_sq), by(country) 

. egen years_election_mean = mean(years_election), by(country)

. egen govfrac_gallager_mean = mean(govfrac_gallager), by(country) 

. egen enep1_gallager_mean = mean(enep1_gallager), by(country)

. 
. *** Generation of within terms 
. gen swd_perc_w = swd_perc - swd_perc_mean

. gen growth_rate_w = growth_rate - growth_rate_mean

. gen gini_w = gini - gini_mean

. gen icrg_qog_w = icrg_qog - icrg_qog_mean

. gen govfrac_w = govfrac - govfrac_mean

. gen years_election_w = years_election - years_election_mean

. 
. **********************************************
. *** Standardization of Continous Variables ***
. **********************************************
. *** Note: All standardized variables have the prefix zee_ 
. norm enpp1_mean, method(zee)

. norm enep1_mean, method(zee)

. norm gallager_index_mean, method(zee)

. norm tier1_avemag_mean, method(zee)

. norm tier1_avemag_log_mean, method(zee)

. norm years_election_mean, method(zee)

. norm enep1_sq_mean, method(zee)

. norm gallager_index_sq_mean, method(zee)

. norm govfrac_sq_mean, method(zee)

. norm growth_rate_mean, method(zee)

. norm GDPpc_mean, method(zee)

. norm icrg_qog_mean, method(zee)

. norm govfrac_mean, method(zee)

. norm gini_mean, method(zee)

. norm govfrac_gallager_mean , method(zee)

. norm enep1_gallager_mean , method(zee)

. norm enpp1_w, method(zee)

. norm enep1_w, method(zee)

. norm gallager_index_w, method(zee)

. norm years_election_w, method(zee)

. norm growth_rate_w, method(zee)

. norm gini_w, method(zee)

. norm icrg_qog_w, method(zee)

. norm govfrac_w, method(zee)

. norm al_ethnic, method(zee)

. norm time_trend , method(zee)

. 
. *********************************
. *** Generation of Line Graphs ***
. *********************************
. *** Note: The line graphs have been formatted with the Graph Editor afterwards. 
. ***       The corresponding .gph files have been uploaded in the folder "Figures and Tables".
. 
. encode country, gen(country_id)

. labmask country_id, values(country)

. tsset country_id year, yearly
       panel variable:  country_id (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1990 to 2012, but with gaps
                delta:  1 year

. 
. *** Generate Figure 2 
. gen swd_perc_div10 = swd_perc/10 // rescale SWD to a 0-10 pt scale

. xtline swd_perc_div10 enep1 , ylabel(0(5)10)

. graph save "Figure 2.gph", replace
(file Figure 2.gph saved)

. 
. *** Generate Figure A 
. xtline gallager_index , ylabel(0(10)20) 

. graph save "Figure A.gph", replace
(file Figure A.gph saved)

. 
. *** Generate Figure B 
. xtline govfrac , ylabel(0(0.4)0.8) 

. graph save "Figure B.gph", replace
(file Figure B.gph saved)

. 
. ****************************************************
. *** Table 1: Multilevel Analysis of TSCS Dataset ***
. ****************************************************
. *** Notes: The post-estimation commands estat ic and estat icc are used to estimate the AIC and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) after each model.
. ***        The table has been created based on the information conveyed by outreg2 and the Stata output (Variance components, Log likelihood, AIC and ICCs)
. 
. *** Model 1 (Null)
. xtmixed swd_perc || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3158.0012  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3158.0011  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(0)       =         .
Log likelihood = -3158.0011                     Prob > chi2        =         .

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   49.92214   2.200039    22.69   0.000     45.61015    54.23414
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   263.5809    51.9954      179.0611    387.9954
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   54.55853   7.565324      41.57491    71.59686
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   61.59628   3.776141      54.62253    69.46038
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =  1004.06   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table 1.out", replace ctitle(Model 1) dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*) sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic // Get AIC values

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .   -3158.001      4     6324.002    6342.902
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc // Get Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for the country-level

Intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .6941167   .0444583      .6008557    .7737908
             elec_id|country |   .8377917   .0241586      .7847325    .8797764
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. display 1-0.8377917 // Estimate ICC for the country-year level
.1622083

. display 0.8377917-0.6941167 // Estimate ICC for the election-year level
.143675

. 
. *** Notes on the ICCs: estat icc provides two values (country and elec_id|country). The ICC values for "country" provides information about the share of variation that can 
. *   be attributed to the county-level (=ICC Country in Table 1, Model 1). 
. *   "elec_id|country" provides the information about how much variation can be attributed jointly to to the country-level and the election-level.
. *   To estimate the ICC for the country-year level, simply substract the variation that can be attributed to the country-level and election-level (elec_id|country) from the total varition 1.
. *   ICC Country year = 1-0.8377917 = 0.1622083.
. *   To get the ICC for the election-year level, substract the variation attributable to the country-level (country) from the shared variation of the country and election-level (elec_id|country).
. *   ICC Election = 0.8377917-0.6941167 = 0.143675 
. 
. *** Model 2 (Government Fractionalization and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic ///
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_govfrac_mean ///
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_govfrac_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance       

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3061.8917  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3061.8892  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3061.8892  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    326.36
Log likelihood = -3061.8892                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |   -3.00188   2.914444    -1.03   0.303    -8.714086    2.710326
          Presidential  |   2.704984   4.325837     0.63   0.532    -5.773502    11.18347
                        |
                federal |   2.184102    3.25828     0.67   0.503     -4.20201    8.570214
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.615548   1.371017    -1.18   0.239    -4.302691    1.071595
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.794745   2.335989     3.34   0.001     3.216291     12.3732
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.820762   1.376672     2.78   0.006     1.122536    6.518989
          zee_gini_mean |  -.4967454   2.673026    -0.19   0.853     -5.73578    4.742289
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.187579   2.701229     3.03   0.002     2.893267    13.48189
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -3.772998   1.250876    -3.02   0.003     -6.22467   -1.321327
       zee_govfrac_mean |  -2.997166   1.304723    -2.30   0.022    -5.554376   -.4399573
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.951756   .3170833     6.16   0.000     1.330284    2.573228
             zee_gini_w |  -2.228254   .3935372    -5.66   0.000    -2.999573   -1.456936
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .4782211   .4423106     1.08   0.280    -.3886918    1.345134
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.646459   .2895402    -5.69   0.000    -2.213948   -1.078971
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .3445929   .4563279     0.76   0.450    -.5497934    1.238979
          zee_govfrac_w |  -.2556312   .4319891    -0.59   0.554    -1.102314    .5910519
         zee_time_trend |   2.475187   .5176314     4.78   0.000     1.460648    3.489726
                  _cons |   48.92642    2.01767    24.25   0.000     44.97186    52.88098
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   48.63944   11.42841      30.68943    77.08827
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.59124   5.702286      25.04076    47.78425
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.26378   3.586937       51.6411    65.73578
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   349.39   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table 1.out",   append ctitle(Model 2)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic 

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .   -3061.889     21     6165.778    6265.004
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc 

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .3437551   .0562019      .2432577    .4605054
             elec_id|country |   .5882257   .0402753      .5076834    .6643041
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *** Model 3 (ENEP and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic ///        
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_enep1_mean ///
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_enep1_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3055.7917  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3055.7887  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3055.7887  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    373.81
Log likelihood = -3055.7887                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -3.093507   2.700285    -1.15   0.252    -8.385968    2.198954
          Presidential  |   2.146288   4.043577     0.53   0.596    -5.778977    10.07155
                        |
                federal |   3.152151   3.049843     1.03   0.301    -2.825431    9.129732
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.143401   1.273725    -0.90   0.369    -3.639855    1.353053
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   6.597521   2.191544     3.01   0.003     2.302175    10.89287
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   4.206898   1.279887     3.29   0.001     1.698367     6.71543
          zee_gini_mean |   .1558479   2.386057     0.07   0.948    -4.520739    4.832434
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   9.078294   2.511433     3.61   0.000     4.155975    14.00061
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -2.703196   1.049394    -2.58   0.010     -4.75997   -.6464215
         zee_enep1_mean |  -4.063132   1.061599    -3.83   0.000    -6.143828   -1.982436
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.986869   .3162432     6.28   0.000     1.367044    2.606694
             zee_gini_w |   -2.22658   .3888907    -5.73   0.000    -2.988792   -1.464368
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5412279    .441451     1.23   0.220    -.3240002    1.406456
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.648377   .2892273    -5.70   0.000    -2.215252   -1.081502
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .5722347    .461821     1.24   0.215    -.3329179    1.477387
            zee_enep1_w |  -.9634716   .4523252    -2.13   0.033    -1.850013   -.0769305
         zee_time_trend |   2.448308   .5123873     4.78   0.000     1.444048    3.452569
                  _cons |   48.83657   1.877585    26.01   0.000     45.15657    52.51657
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   40.69353   9.861914      25.30697    65.43508
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   33.33346   5.569142       24.0252    46.24808
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.38857   3.592128      51.75604    65.87107
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   308.23   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table 1.out",   append ctitle(Model 3)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic 

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .   -3055.789     21     6153.577    6252.803
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc 

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .3073168   .0546146      .2115612    .4231522
             elec_id|country |   .5590505   .0408893      .4780662    .6370101
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *******************************************************************************
. *** Table D: Electoral System and Average District Magnitude (TSCS Dataset) ***
. *******************************************************************************
. *** Notes: estat ic and estat icc are used to estimate the AIC and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient after each model
. ***        The table has been created based on the information conveyed by outreg2 and the Stata output (Variance components, Log likelihood, AIC and ICCs)
. 
. *** Model 8 (Electoral System)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic i.electoral_system ///  
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean ///   
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance  

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3066.3229  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3066.3204  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3066.3204  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(15)      =    291.26
Log likelihood = -3066.3204                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -4.590103   3.097187    -1.48   0.138    -10.66048    1.480273
          Presidential  |   5.533668   4.502008     1.23   0.219    -3.290106    14.35744
                        |
                federal |   .5243215   3.644403     0.14   0.886    -6.618578    7.667221
          zee_al_ethnic |  -2.285402   1.408917    -1.62   0.105    -5.046828    .4760238
                        |
       electoral_system |
Mixed Electoral System  |  -4.607991   4.689382    -0.98   0.326    -13.79901    4.583029
                    PR  |  -2.279271   4.485271    -0.51   0.611    -11.07024    6.511699
                        |
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.784164    2.50015     3.11   0.002     2.883961    12.68437
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   2.677648   1.418387     1.89   0.059    -.1023383    5.457635
          zee_gini_mean |   .3893782   2.761896     0.14   0.888    -5.023838    5.802595
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.487414   2.932937     2.89   0.004     2.738963    14.23586
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.940765   .3170752     6.12   0.000     1.319309    2.562221
             zee_gini_w |  -2.197192   .3934043    -5.59   0.000     -2.96825   -1.426134
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .4736528   .4429242     1.07   0.285    -.3944626    1.341768
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.638758   .2892498    -5.67   0.000    -2.205677   -1.071839
         zee_time_trend |   2.480797   .5170976     4.80   0.000     1.467304     3.49429
                  _cons |   51.23108    4.62333    11.08   0.000     42.16952    60.29264
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   57.35507    13.2106      36.51862    90.08017
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.73572   5.708956      25.16969    47.93743
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |      58.31   3.585188      51.69005    65.77776
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   376.49   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table D.out",   replace ctitle(Model 8)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic 

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .    -3066.32     19     6170.641    6260.417
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .3813482   .0576846      .2762669    .4988489
             elec_id|country |   .6123026   .0400335      .5315754    .6873014
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *** Model 9 (Average District Magnitude)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic zee_tier1_avemag_mean ///  
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3066.0933  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3066.0908  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3066.0908  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(14)      =    294.11
Log likelihood = -3066.0908                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
               regime |
   Semi-Presidential  |  -4.667365   3.069973    -1.52   0.128     -10.6844    1.349671
        Presidential  |   5.078863   4.439275     1.14   0.253    -3.621956    13.77968
                      |
              federal |   .3235952   3.425876     0.09   0.925    -6.390998    7.038189
        zee_al_ethnic |  -2.256736   1.399525    -1.61   0.107    -4.999753     .486282
zee_tier1_avemag_mean |  -1.726275   1.176076    -1.47   0.142     -4.03134    .5787911
       zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.865025   2.476971     3.18   0.001     3.010252     12.7198
 zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.125427   1.440746     2.17   0.030      .301618    5.949237
        zee_gini_mean |   .1930606    2.70167     0.07   0.943    -5.102116    5.488237
    zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.901429   2.859768     3.11   0.002     3.296386    14.50647
    zee_growth_rate_w |   1.956388   .3168338     6.17   0.000     1.335405    2.577371
           zee_gini_w |  -2.239694   .3917238    -5.72   0.000    -3.007459    -1.47193
       zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5071008   .4423556     1.15   0.252    -.3599002    1.374102
 zee_years_election_w |  -1.638892   .2893061    -5.66   0.000    -2.205922   -1.071863
       zee_time_trend |   2.467862   .5166763     4.78   0.000     1.455195    3.480529
                _cons |   48.83567   2.127634    22.95   0.000     44.66558    53.00575
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   56.40015   12.97992      35.92402    88.54735
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.76044   5.712179       25.1888    47.96927
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.33147   3.587355      51.70761    65.80386
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   382.34   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table D.out",   append ctitle(Model 9)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .   -3066.091     18     6168.182    6253.232
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .3772786   .0573755      .2729383     .494384
             elec_id|country |   .6098022   .0400046      .5292065     .684818
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. /* Not shown in Table D 
> *** Model 9_A (Average District Magnitude, Logged)
> xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic zee_tier1_avemag_log_mean ///
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean ///   
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 
> outreg2 using "Table D.out",   append ctitle(Model 9_A)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
> estat ic
> estat icc
> */
. 
. ***********************************************************************************************************
. *** Table F: Party/ Government System Fractionalization and Electoral Disproportionality (TSCS Dataset) ***
. ***********************************************************************************************************
. *** Notes: estat ic and estat icc are used to estimate the AIC and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient after each model
. ***        The table has been created based on the information conveyed by outreg2 and the Stata output (Variance components, Log likelihood, AIC and ICCs)
. 
. *** Model 12 (Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean ///
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3064.5991  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3064.5964  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3064.5964  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(15)      =    304.75
Log likelihood = -3064.5964                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -3.659037   3.021475    -1.21   0.226    -9.581019    2.262944
          Presidential  |   3.038774   4.493403     0.68   0.499    -5.768134    11.84568
                        |
                federal |   1.742593   3.388264     0.51   0.607    -4.898283    8.383469
          zee_al_ethnic |  -2.464249   1.374487    -1.79   0.073    -5.158194    .2296955
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.671305   2.432111     3.15   0.002     2.904454    12.43816
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.070497   1.393495     2.20   0.028      .339296    5.801697
          zee_gini_mean |   1.448964   2.639449     0.55   0.583    -3.724262    6.622189
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.621773     2.8052     3.07   0.002     3.123681    14.11986
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -2.535035   1.173705    -2.16   0.031    -4.835454   -.2346166
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.963699   .3169149     6.20   0.000     1.342557    2.584841
             zee_gini_w |  -2.249856   .3912479    -5.75   0.000    -3.016688   -1.483024
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .4780395   .4423365     1.08   0.280    -.3889241    1.345003
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.643725   .2897067    -5.67   0.000     -2.21154   -1.075911
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .3519569   .4552405     0.77   0.439    -.5402981    1.244212
         zee_time_trend |   2.474313   .5176063     4.78   0.000     1.459824    3.488803
                  _cons |   49.15087   2.097878    23.43   0.000     45.03911    53.26264
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   53.83586    12.4548      34.20961    84.72181
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |    34.3978   5.685068      24.87992    47.55676
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.40077   3.595297      51.76264    65.89017
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   362.43   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table F.out",   replace ctitle(Model 12)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .   -3064.596     19     6167.193    6256.968
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .3671434   .0569865      .2640164     .484059
             elec_id|country |   .6017254   .0403072      .5207412       .6775
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *** Model 13 (Gallagher Index squared)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_gallager_index_sq_mean ///  
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3061.5083  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3061.5057  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3061.5057  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(16)      =    333.38
Log likelihood = -3061.5057                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                    regime |
        Semi-Presidential  |  -3.594459   2.858648    -1.26   0.209    -9.197307    2.008389
             Presidential  |   2.675381    4.26725     0.63   0.531    -5.688276    11.03904
                           |
                   federal |   3.555983   3.286729     1.08   0.279    -2.885888    9.997853
             zee_al_ethnic |  -2.106948    1.30864    -1.61   0.107    -4.671836    .4579399
            zee_GDPpc_mean |   6.662899   2.335817     2.85   0.004     2.084782    11.24102
      zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.427932    1.32588     2.59   0.010     .8292545     6.02661
             zee_gini_mean |   1.141552   2.504513     0.46   0.649    -3.767204    6.050308
         zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.549942   2.656628     3.22   0.001     3.343047    13.75684
   zee_gallager_index_mean |   -12.4601   4.040938    -3.08   0.002    -20.38019   -4.540007
zee_gallager_index_sq_mean |   10.36914   4.054749     2.56   0.011      2.42198     18.3163
         zee_growth_rate_w |   1.960681   .3169425     6.19   0.000     1.339485    2.581877
                zee_gini_w |  -2.247874   .3913344    -5.74   0.000    -3.014876   -1.480873
            zee_icrg_qog_w |   .4561839   .4423401     1.03   0.302    -.4107868    1.323155
      zee_years_election_w |  -1.635716   .2897169    -5.65   0.000    -2.203551   -1.067881
      zee_gallager_index_w |   .3295786    .455439     0.72   0.469    -.5630654    1.222223
            zee_time_trend |   2.412467   .5174317     4.66   0.000     1.398319    3.426614
                     _cons |   48.98739   1.987571    24.65   0.000     45.09182    52.88295
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   46.92897   11.20165       29.3944    74.92339
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.44105   5.685385      24.92089    47.59805
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.40311   3.595042      51.76542    65.89194
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   322.64   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table F.out",   append ctitle(Model 13)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .   -3061.506     20     6163.011    6257.512
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |    .335751   .0564321      .2353718    .4535466
             elec_id|country |   .5821578   .0406575      .5010111    .6590877
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *** Model 14 (ENEP)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean  zee_enep1_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_enep1_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3059.7119  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3059.7094  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3059.7094  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(15)      =    340.07
Log likelihood = -3059.7094                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              regime |
  Semi-Presidential  |  -3.901679    2.82942    -1.38   0.168    -9.447239    1.643882
       Presidential  |   4.615097   4.113497     1.12   0.262    -3.447209     12.6774
                     |
             federal |   1.998636   3.178213     0.63   0.529    -4.230547    8.227819
       zee_al_ethnic |  -1.019913   1.340573    -0.76   0.447    -3.647387    1.607562
      zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.061342   2.301399     3.07   0.002     2.550682      11.572
zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.769141   1.335846     2.82   0.005     1.150932    6.387351
       zee_gini_mean |  -.4895252   2.493386    -0.20   0.844    -5.376471    4.397421
   zee_icrg_qog_mean |   9.235528   2.644013     3.49   0.000     4.053358     14.4177
      zee_enep1_mean |  -3.951611   1.118146    -3.53   0.000    -6.143138   -1.760085
   zee_growth_rate_w |   1.969906   .3162637     6.23   0.000     1.350041    2.589772
          zee_gini_w |  -2.212153   .3903414    -5.67   0.000    -2.977208   -1.447098
      zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5692567    .442643     1.29   0.198    -.2983075    1.436821
zee_years_election_w |  -1.636028   .2888383    -5.66   0.000    -2.202141   -1.069916
         zee_enep1_w |  -.8345972   .4443711    -1.88   0.060    -1.705549    .0363542
      zee_time_trend |    2.41873   .5130782     4.71   0.000     1.413115    3.424345
               _cons |   48.31409   1.963272    24.61   0.000     44.46615    52.16203
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   46.36229   11.01543      29.10207     73.8594
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.09631    5.62651      24.67423    47.11629
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |    58.2617   3.578374      51.65392    65.71479
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   338.77   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table F.out",   append ctitle(Model 14)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .   -3059.709     19     6157.419    6247.194
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .3342142   .0560598       .234518    .4513052
             elec_id|country |   .5800059   .0404409      .4993539    .6566002
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *** Model 15 (ENEP squared)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean  zee_enep1_mean zee_enep1_sq_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_enep1_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3058.7569  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3058.7544  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3058.7544  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(16)      =    349.52
Log likelihood = -3058.7544                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              regime |
  Semi-Presidential  |  -4.133636    2.78698    -1.48   0.138    -9.596016    1.328743
       Presidential  |   5.332347   4.077726     1.31   0.191    -2.659848    13.32454
                     |
             federal |   .0027819   3.433997     0.00   0.999    -6.727729    6.733292
       zee_al_ethnic |  -.7709718   1.330465    -0.58   0.562    -3.378636    1.836693
      zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.441674   2.279928     3.26   0.001     2.973097    11.91025
zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.638801    1.31721     2.76   0.006     1.057118    6.220484
       zee_gini_mean |  -.8082887   2.462622    -0.33   0.743    -5.634939    4.018362
   zee_icrg_qog_mean |   9.388037   2.602906     3.61   0.000     4.286435    14.48964
      zee_enep1_mean |  -11.52391   5.546229    -2.08   0.038    -22.39431   -.6534961
   zee_enep1_sq_mean |   8.010557    5.74753     1.39   0.163    -3.254395    19.27551
   zee_growth_rate_w |   1.967097   .3162574     6.22   0.000     1.347244     2.58695
          zee_gini_w |  -2.210008   .3904542    -5.66   0.000    -2.975284   -1.444732
      zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5704194   .4426961     1.29   0.198     -.297249    1.438088
zee_years_election_w |  -1.636544   .2888119    -5.67   0.000    -2.202605   -1.070483
         zee_enep1_w |  -.8357759   .4445898    -1.88   0.060    -1.707156    .0356041
      zee_time_trend |   2.420858    .513117     4.72   0.000     1.415167    3.426549
               _cons |   48.44755   1.933597    25.06   0.000     44.65777    52.23733
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   44.42197   10.66278      27.75112    71.10743
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.16508   5.631783      24.73262    47.19487
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.23849   3.576155      51.63472    65.68685
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   326.92   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table F.out",   append ctitle(Model 15)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .   -3058.754     20     6157.509    6252.009
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .3246614   .0558162      .2259399    .4418931
             elec_id|country |   .5743595    .040455      .4938317    .6511266
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *** Model 16 (ENEP * Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_enep1_mean zee_enep1_gallager_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_enep1_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3055.7906  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3055.7876  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3055.7876  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(18)      =    373.78
Log likelihood = -3055.7876                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |   -3.10583   2.713172    -1.14   0.252    -8.423549    2.211889
          Presidential  |   2.143876   4.044084     0.53   0.596    -5.782382    10.07013
                        |
                federal |    3.18613    3.13444     1.02   0.309    -2.957259     9.32952
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.141578   1.274389    -0.90   0.370    -3.639334    1.356179
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   6.594739   2.192469     3.01   0.003     2.297579     10.8919
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   4.196666   1.298361     3.23   0.001     1.651926    6.741407
          zee_gini_mean |   .1602923    2.38801     0.07   0.946     -4.52012    4.840705
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   9.089987   2.523903     3.60   0.000     4.143228    14.03675
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -2.848295   3.263355    -0.87   0.383    -9.244353    3.547763
         zee_enep1_mean |  -4.129005   1.759083    -2.35   0.019    -7.576743   -.6812659
zee_enep1_gallager_mean |   .1721579   3.666475     0.05   0.963    -7.014002    7.358317
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.986785   .3162456     6.28   0.000     1.366955    2.606615
             zee_gini_w |  -2.226432   .3889023    -5.72   0.000    -2.988666   -1.464198
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5409368   .4414951     1.23   0.220    -.3243778    1.406251
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.648208   .2892487    -5.70   0.000    -2.215125   -1.081291
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .5714738   .4621018     1.24   0.216    -.3342291    1.477177
            zee_enep1_w |  -.9632624   .4523458    -2.13   0.033    -1.849844    -.076681
         zee_time_trend |   2.447511   .5126823     4.77   0.000     1.442672     3.45235
                  _cons |   48.83587   1.877751    26.01   0.000     45.15555     52.5162
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   40.69945   9.862917      25.31118    65.44324
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   33.33375   5.568921       24.0258    46.24776
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.38766   3.592079      51.75522    65.87006
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   307.60   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table F.out",   append ctitle(Model 17)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .   -3055.788     22     6155.575    6259.526
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .3073492   .0546146      .2115915    .4231822
             elec_id|country |   .5590751   .0408904      .4780879     .637036
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *** Model 17 (Government Fractionalization)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_govfrac_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_govfrac_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3066.4368  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3066.4343  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3066.4343  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(15)      =    289.92
Log likelihood = -3066.4343                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              regime |
  Semi-Presidential  |  -4.248795   3.095708    -1.37   0.170    -10.31627    1.818681
       Presidential  |   5.682525   4.487478     1.27   0.205    -3.112769    14.47782
                     |
             federal |   .6554849   3.450055     0.19   0.849    -6.106498    7.417468
       zee_al_ethnic |  -1.914669   1.465206    -1.31   0.191    -4.786421    .9570826
      zee_GDPpc_mean |   8.220291   2.499649     3.29   0.001      3.32107    13.11951
zee_growth_rate_mean |   2.913864   1.439917     2.02   0.043      .091678    5.736049
       zee_gini_mean |  -.1490998   2.857762    -0.05   0.958    -5.750211    5.452011
   zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.635885   2.889195     2.99   0.003     2.973167     14.2986
    zee_govfrac_mean |  -1.289614   1.259738    -1.02   0.306    -3.758656    1.179428
   zee_growth_rate_w |   1.944786   .3170413     6.13   0.000     1.323396    2.566175
          zee_gini_w |  -2.213395   .3940663    -5.62   0.000     -2.98575   -1.441039
      zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5050897   .4425504     1.14   0.254    -.3622931    1.372473
zee_years_election_w |  -1.642538   .2892203    -5.68   0.000    -2.209399   -1.075676
       zee_govfrac_w |  -.2742714   .4328225    -0.63   0.526    -1.122588     .574045
      zee_time_trend |    2.46696    .517416     4.77   0.000     1.452844    3.481077
               _cons |   48.44854   2.153033    22.50   0.000     44.22867    52.66841
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   57.65692   13.24129      36.75931    90.43477
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.99511   5.738671        25.376    48.26048
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.20764   3.580763      51.59606    65.66643
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   387.13   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table F.out",   append ctitle(Model 16)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .   -3066.434     19     6170.869    6260.644
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .3821891   .0575755       .277242    .4994124
             elec_id|country |   .6141604   .0398502      .5337567    .6887831
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *** Model 18 (Government Fractionalization * Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_govfrac_mean zee_govfrac_gallager_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_govfrac_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3061.8018  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3061.7993  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3061.7993  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(18)      =    326.74
Log likelihood = -3061.7993                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                   regime |
       Semi-Presidential  |  -3.288951   2.990915    -1.10   0.271    -9.151036    2.573133
            Presidential  |   2.791218   4.328881     0.64   0.519    -5.693233    11.27567
                          |
                  federal |   2.068476   3.268338     0.63   0.527    -4.337348    8.474301
            zee_al_ethnic |  -1.554563   1.377998    -1.13   0.259    -4.255389    1.146262
           zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.868819   2.341599     3.36   0.001      3.27937    12.45827
     zee_growth_rate_mean |     3.7563   1.384505     2.71   0.007      1.04272     6.46988
            zee_gini_mean |   -.386492   2.684668    -0.14   0.886    -5.648345    4.875361
        zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.389129   2.741667     3.06   0.002      3.01556     13.7627
  zee_gallager_index_mean |  -4.330493   1.814563    -2.39   0.017    -7.886971   -.7740144
         zee_govfrac_mean |  -3.799001   2.297392    -1.65   0.098    -8.301807    .7038051
zee_govfrac_gallager_mean |   .9745249   2.298412     0.42   0.672    -3.530279    5.479329
        zee_growth_rate_w |   1.952077   .3170587     6.16   0.000     1.330653    2.573501
               zee_gini_w |  -2.228291   .3934822    -5.66   0.000    -2.999502    -1.45708
           zee_icrg_qog_w |   .4787208   .4422584     1.08   0.279    -.3880897    1.345531
     zee_years_election_w |  -1.647517   .2895314    -5.69   0.000    -2.214988   -1.080046
     zee_gallager_index_w |   .3455925   .4562496     0.76   0.449    -.5486402    1.239825
            zee_govfrac_w |  -.2552728   .4319135    -0.59   0.555    -1.101808    .5912622
           zee_time_trend |   2.480095   .5176738     4.79   0.000     1.465473    3.494717
                    _cons |   48.98972   2.022412    24.22   0.000     45.02587    52.95358
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   48.59547   11.39696      30.68781    76.95302
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.57228      5.698      25.02869    47.75491
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |    58.2586   3.586401      51.63689    65.72946
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   349.09   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table F.out",   append ctitle(Model 18)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    833           .   -3061.799     22     6167.599    6271.549
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .3436097   .0560769      .2433209       .4601
             elec_id|country |    .588064   .0402413      .5075949    .6640854
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ************************************************************************************************
. *** Table H: Government System Fractionalization (TSCS Dataset, Parliamentary Systems Only)  ***
. ************************************************************************************************
. *** Notes: estat ic and estat icc are used to estimate the AIC and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient after each model
. ***        The table has been created based on the information conveyed by outreg2 and the Stata output (Variance components, Log likelihood, AIC and ICCs)
. 
. *** Keep only parliamentary systems, create temporary file of the used dataset
. save "TSCS_temp.dta", replace
file TSCS_temp.dta saved

. 
. drop if regime==2 // drop if Presidential
(290 observations deleted)

. drop if regime==1 // drop if Semi-Presidential
(199 observations deleted)

. 
. *** Model 27 (Government Fractionalization and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_govfrac_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_govfrac_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1184.4067  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1184.4067  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       344

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       23          4       15.0         23
        elec_id |      125          1        2.8          5
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(15)      =    228.93
Log likelihood = -1184.4067                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                federal |   .8485029   3.812333     0.22   0.824    -6.623533    8.320539
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.132905   1.581861    -0.72   0.474    -4.233295    1.967485
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   1.993112   2.637989     0.76   0.450    -3.177251    7.163476
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   7.906822   2.147999     3.68   0.000     3.696821    12.11682
          zee_gini_mean |   -7.14222   3.947202    -1.81   0.070    -14.87859    .5941537
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   17.01256   3.397296     5.01   0.000     10.35399    23.67114
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -3.046618   1.625759    -1.87   0.061    -6.233048    .1398113
       zee_govfrac_mean |  -5.002772   1.704965    -2.93   0.003    -8.344443   -1.661102
      zee_growth_rate_w |   2.236234   .4072745     5.49   0.000     1.437991    3.034477
             zee_gini_w |  -1.809477   .7029432    -2.57   0.010     -3.18722   -.4317336
         zee_icrg_qog_w |  -.6068463   .6015511    -1.01   0.313    -1.785865    .5721722
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.515988   .3561186    -4.26   0.000    -2.213967    -.818008
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .8836189   .7320229     1.21   0.227    -.5511197    2.318358
          zee_govfrac_w |  -.2126321   .7338272    -0.29   0.772    -1.650907    1.225643
         zee_time_trend |   2.552376   .7019303     3.64   0.000     1.176617    3.928134
                  _cons |   44.84029   2.122449    21.13   0.000     40.68037    49.00021
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   23.60776   9.888091      10.38794    53.65125
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   36.10714   7.431666      24.12107    54.04924
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   32.40841   3.129303      26.82052    39.16052
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   152.99   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. outreg2 using "Table H.out",   replace ctitle(Model 27)  dec(2) onecol alpha(0.001,0.01,0.05) symbol(***,**,*)  sideway
dir : seeout

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |    344           .   -1184.407     19     2406.813    2479.786
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. estat icc

Residual intraclass correlation

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Level |        ICC   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
                     country |   .2562626   .0853157      .1253369     .453104
             elec_id|country |   .6482061   .0512609      .5425407    .7411111
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. use "TSCS_temp.dta", clear // restore data

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. ************************************************
. *** End of Analysis Reported in the Article  ***
. ************************************************
. ************************************************
. 
. 
. ***********************************************************************************
. *** Additional Robustness Checks mentioned in the Supplementary Online Appendix ***
. ***********************************************************************************
. *** Notes:      We performed six additional robustness checks for the results presented in Table 1 which we describe only in the Appendix. 
. ***             1.) Comparison of robust standard errors, 2.) random slopes for ENEP and Years since Last Election,
. ***                     3.) treating �country-years� as nested within �election cycles,� which are cross-classified within �years� and �countries.
. ***         4.) inspections of model residuals, 5.) gauge the degree of collinearity,
. ***                     6.) analysis the errors u0 and u1 (country and election), control for influential cases at the country and election level
. 
. 
. ******************************************
. *** Table 1: 1.)Robust Standard Errors ***
. ******************************************
. *** Notes:      Results are robust, no coefficient loses or gains much in significance.
. 
. *** Model 2 (Government Fractionalization and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic ///
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_govfrac_mean ///
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_govfrac_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance robust        

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -3061.8917  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -3061.8892  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -3061.8892  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects regression                        Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    674.97
Log pseudolikelihood = -3061.8892               Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

                                          (Std. Err. adjusted for 58 clusters in country)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |   -3.00188   2.438867    -1.23   0.218    -7.781972    1.778212
          Presidential  |   2.704984   5.129383     0.53   0.598    -7.348422    12.75839
                        |
                federal |   2.184102   2.940094     0.74   0.458    -3.578377    7.946581
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.615548   1.221377    -1.32   0.186    -4.009402    .7783061
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.794745   2.203653     3.54   0.000     3.475665    12.11383
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.820762   1.465592     2.61   0.009     .9482542    6.693271
          zee_gini_mean |  -.4967454   3.154114    -0.16   0.875    -6.678696    5.685205
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.187579   3.101575     2.64   0.008     2.108604    14.26655
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -3.772998   1.344543    -2.81   0.005    -6.408255   -1.137742
       zee_govfrac_mean |  -2.997166   1.057067    -2.84   0.005    -5.068979   -.9253535
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.951756   .3195828     6.11   0.000     1.325385    2.578127
             zee_gini_w |  -2.228254   .5539079    -4.02   0.000    -3.313894   -1.142615
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .4782211   .6160437     0.78   0.438    -.7292023    1.685645
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.646459   .2971035    -5.54   0.000    -2.228771   -1.064147
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .3445929   .3706037     0.93   0.352    -.3817769    1.070963
          zee_govfrac_w |  -.2556312   .4953177    -0.52   0.606    -1.226436    .7151737
         zee_time_trend |   2.475187   .8948344     2.77   0.006     .7213435     4.22903
                  _cons |   48.92642   2.192209    22.32   0.000     44.62977    53.22307
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             |               Robust           
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   48.63944    12.7307      29.12047    81.24165
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.59124   8.616022       21.2299    56.36173
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.26378   6.153032      47.37032    71.66235
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *** Model 3 (ENEP and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic ///
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_enep1_mean ///
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_enep1_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance robust 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -3055.7917  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -3055.7887  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -3055.7887  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects regression                        Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    666.76
Log pseudolikelihood = -3055.7887               Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

                                          (Std. Err. adjusted for 58 clusters in country)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -3.093507    2.32602    -1.33   0.184    -7.652422    1.465408
          Presidential  |   2.146288   4.655738     0.46   0.645    -6.978791    11.27137
                        |
                federal |   3.152151   2.811714     1.12   0.262    -2.358708     8.66301
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.143401   1.072037    -1.07   0.286    -3.244554    .9577527
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   6.597521   1.955606     3.37   0.001     2.764604    10.43044
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   4.206898   1.351491     3.11   0.002     1.558025    6.855772
          zee_gini_mean |   .1558479   2.810936     0.06   0.956    -5.353486    5.665182
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   9.078294   2.406607     3.77   0.000      4.36143    13.79516
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -2.703196   1.261874    -2.14   0.032    -5.176423   -.2299692
         zee_enep1_mean |  -4.063132   1.162536    -3.50   0.000     -6.34166   -1.784604
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.986869   .3231168     6.15   0.000     1.353572    2.620166
             zee_gini_w |   -2.22658   .5394561    -4.13   0.000    -3.283894   -1.169265
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5412279   .6145714     0.88   0.379      -.66331    1.745766
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.648377    .295233    -5.58   0.000    -2.227023   -1.069731
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .5722347   .3732382     1.53   0.125    -.1592987    1.303768
            zee_enep1_w |  -.9634716   .4104699    -2.35   0.019    -1.767978   -.1589655
         zee_time_trend |   2.448308   .8859538     2.76   0.006     .7118708    4.184746
                  _cons |   48.83657   1.869053    26.13   0.000      45.1733    52.49985
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             |               Robust           
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   40.69353   9.678517       25.5315    64.85963
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   33.33346   8.410817      20.32835    54.65861
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.38857    6.14989      47.49779    71.77651
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *********************************
. *** Table 1: 2.)Random Slopes ***
. *********************************
. *** Notes:      Results for Enep and years since election are robust against the inclusion of random slopes.
. 
. *** Model 2 (Government Fractionalization and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic ///
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_govfrac_mean ///
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_govfrac_w zee_time_trend || country: zee_years_election_w || elec_id: zee_govfrac_w , mle variance  

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3065.3654  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3061.4255  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3061.2368  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -3061.1805  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -3061.1805  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    325.57
Log likelihood = -3061.1805                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |   -2.99575   2.883912    -1.04   0.299    -8.648114    2.656614
          Presidential  |   2.551234   4.279622     0.60   0.551    -5.836671    10.93914
                        |
                federal |   2.147425   3.228241     0.67   0.506    -4.179811    8.474662
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.623554   1.358062    -1.20   0.232    -4.285307    1.038198
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.763312   2.312497     3.36   0.001     3.230901    12.29572
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.826645   1.363992     2.81   0.005      1.15327     6.50002
          zee_gini_mean |  -.4798055   2.647113    -0.18   0.856    -5.668051     4.70844
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.205627    2.67994     3.06   0.002     2.953041    13.45821
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -3.754587   1.239278    -3.03   0.002    -6.183527   -1.325646
       zee_govfrac_mean |  -2.979126   1.290011    -2.31   0.021    -5.507502    -.450751
      zee_growth_rate_w |    1.95991   .3162743     6.20   0.000     1.340023    2.579796
             zee_gini_w |   -2.26911   .3944287    -5.75   0.000    -3.042176   -1.496044
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .4644246   .4432894     1.05   0.295    -.4044066    1.333256
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.637152   .3152815    -5.19   0.000    -2.255093   -1.019212
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .3505301   .4579261     0.77   0.444    -.5469886    1.248049
          zee_govfrac_w |  -.2959743   .4677528    -0.63   0.527    -1.212753    .6208042
         zee_time_trend |   2.429802   .5181636     4.69   0.000      1.41422    3.445384
                  _cons |   49.02276   1.995819    24.56   0.000     45.11103    52.93449
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Independent         |
               var(zee_ye~w) |   .7665306   1.159293      .0395532    14.85516
                  var(_cons) |   47.62185   11.37748      29.81557    76.06228
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Independent         |
               var(zee_go~w) |   3.226473   4.061319      .2737028    38.03443
                  var(_cons) |   31.89446   6.337571      21.60617    47.08177
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   57.19508   3.729541      50.33314    64.99251
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(4) =   350.80   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. *** Model 3 (ENEP and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic ///
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_enep1_mean ///
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_enep1_w zee_time_trend || country: zee_years_election_w || elec_id: zee_enep1_w , mle variance        

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3065.2812  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3063.2464  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3058.7988  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -3055.679  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -3055.5363  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -3055.5361  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    371.24
Log likelihood = -3055.5361                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -3.100003   2.698339    -1.15   0.251     -8.38865    2.188645
          Presidential  |    2.14194   4.040689     0.53   0.596    -5.777665    10.06154
                        |
                federal |   3.151283   3.047567     1.03   0.301    -2.821839    9.124404
          zee_al_ethnic |   -1.14877   1.272767    -0.90   0.367    -3.643347    1.345806
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   6.596198   2.189983     3.01   0.003      2.30391    10.88849
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   4.205428    1.27902     3.29   0.001     1.698594    6.712262
          zee_gini_mean |   .1543947   2.384383     0.06   0.948    -4.518909    4.827699
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   9.077251   2.509592     3.62   0.000     4.158541    13.99596
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -2.703398   1.048717    -2.58   0.010    -4.758846   -.6479495
         zee_enep1_mean |  -4.062913   1.060846    -3.83   0.000    -6.142133   -1.983694
      zee_growth_rate_w |   2.000589     .31549     6.34   0.000     1.382239    2.618938
             zee_gini_w |  -2.229662   .3896095    -5.72   0.000    -2.993282   -1.466041
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5412871   .4408831     1.23   0.220    -.3228278    1.405402
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.644524   .3141556    -5.23   0.000    -2.260257    -1.02879
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .5732774   .4622631     1.24   0.215    -.3327417    1.479296
            zee_enep1_w |  -.9513437   .4524501    -2.10   0.035     -1.83813   -.0645578
         zee_time_trend |   2.460324   .5125393     4.80   0.000     1.455766    3.464883
                  _cons |    48.8416   1.876253    26.03   0.000     45.16421    52.51899
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Independent         |
               var(zee_ye~w) |    .742012   1.159728      .0346757    15.87804
                  var(_cons) |   40.65244   9.851049      25.28252    65.36615
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Independent         |
               var(ze~ep1_w) |   2.43e-10   6.17e-10      1.68e-12    3.53e-08
                  var(_cons) |    33.5261   5.592681      24.17627    46.49186
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   57.49093   3.749775      50.59188    65.33079
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(4) =   308.74   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. ***********************************************************
. *** Table 1: 3.)Year as another level (see notes above) ***
. ***********************************************************
. 
. *** Model 2 (Government Fractionalization and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic ///
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_govfrac_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_govfrac_w zee_time_trend || _all: R.country || _all: R.year || elec_id : , mle  variance

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3055.7218  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3055.7189  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3055.7189  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
           _all |        1        833      833.0        833
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    321.32
Log likelihood = -3055.7189                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -3.027806   2.921694    -1.04   0.300    -8.754222     2.69861
          Presidential  |   2.458236   4.334207     0.57   0.571    -6.036652    10.95313
                        |
                federal |   2.160677    3.26652     0.66   0.508    -4.241584    8.562938
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.652873   1.374241    -1.20   0.229    -4.346336    1.040589
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.769849   2.341823     3.32   0.001     3.179961    12.35974
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.859407   1.380417     2.80   0.005      1.15384    6.564974
          zee_gini_mean |  -.4403278   2.679541    -0.16   0.869    -5.692133    4.811477
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.183003    2.70798     3.02   0.003     2.875459    13.49055
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -3.758272   1.253991    -3.00   0.003    -6.216049   -1.300495
       zee_govfrac_mean |  -2.920579   1.307977    -2.23   0.026    -5.484168   -.3569908
      zee_growth_rate_w |   2.115541    .363838     5.81   0.000     1.402432     2.82865
             zee_gini_w |  -2.299718   .3978547    -5.78   0.000    -3.079499   -1.519937
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .6340052   .4532475     1.40   0.162    -.2543436    1.522354
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.639114   .2877113    -5.70   0.000    -2.203018    -1.07521
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .3739832   .4536584     0.82   0.410    -.5151709    1.263137
          zee_govfrac_w |  -.2447992   .4295248    -0.57   0.569    -1.086652     .597054
         zee_time_trend |    2.59272   .6196885     4.18   0.000     1.378153    3.807287
                  _cons |   49.05584    2.05739    23.84   0.000     45.02343    53.08825
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
_all: Identity               |
              var(R.country) |    49.1529   11.51007      31.06164    77.78108
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
_all: Identity               |
                 var(R.year) |   2.964006   1.586325      1.038291    8.461334
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.60744   5.701764      25.05702    47.79799
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   55.35571   3.473245      48.95021    62.59942
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(3) =   361.73   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. *** Model 3 (ENEP and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_enep1_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_enep1_w zee_time_trend || _all: R.country || _all: R.year || elec_id : , mle  variance

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3049.6287  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3049.6253  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3049.6253  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
           _all |        1        833      833.0        833
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    368.49
Log likelihood = -3049.6253                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -3.106167   2.707464    -1.15   0.251    -8.412699    2.200365
          Presidential  |   1.897496   4.051556     0.47   0.640    -6.043408    9.838399
                        |
                federal |   3.136207   3.057967     1.03   0.305    -2.857298    9.129713
          zee_al_ethnic |   -1.16765   1.276935    -0.91   0.360    -3.670397    1.335097
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   6.581055   2.197336     3.00   0.003     2.274355    10.88776
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   4.256685   1.283741     3.32   0.001     1.740598    6.772772
          zee_gini_mean |   .1764715    2.39216     0.07   0.941    -4.512076    4.865019
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   9.061745   2.517985     3.60   0.000     4.126585    13.99691
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -2.718257   1.052142    -2.58   0.010    -4.780417   -.6560972
         zee_enep1_mean |  -4.034093   1.064715    -3.79   0.000    -6.120896    -1.94729
      zee_growth_rate_w |   2.162383   .3627565     5.96   0.000     1.451393    2.873372
             zee_gini_w |  -2.296255   .3926275    -5.85   0.000    -3.065791   -1.526719
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .7043748   .4524014     1.56   0.119    -.1823157    1.591065
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.640922   .2873542    -5.71   0.000    -2.204126   -1.077719
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .6001038    .459134     1.31   0.191    -.2997824     1.49999
            zee_enep1_w |  -.9498327   .4495317    -2.11   0.035    -1.830899   -.0687668
         zee_time_trend |   2.566614    .614686     4.18   0.000     1.361852    3.771377
                  _cons |   48.96154   1.919601    25.51   0.000     45.19919    52.72389
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
_all: Identity               |
              var(R.country) |    41.1855   9.943593      25.65872    66.10793
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
_all: Identity               |
                 var(R.year) |   2.951234   1.577335      1.035298    8.412828
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   33.31644   5.562727      24.01798    46.21476
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   55.49719   3.478133      49.08223    62.75057
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(3) =   320.56   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. ***********************************
. *** Table 1: 4.)Model Residuals ***
. ***********************************
. *** Notes:      The results of the models are not sensitive to the exclusion of large residuals
. 
. *** Create temporary file of the used dataset
. save "TSCS_temp.dta", replace
file TSCS_temp.dta saved

. 
. **************************************************************
. *** Model 2 (Government Fractionalization and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic  ///
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_govfrac_mean ///
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_govfrac_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3061.8917  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3061.8892  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3061.8892  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    326.36
Log likelihood = -3061.8892                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |   -3.00188   2.914444    -1.03   0.303    -8.714086    2.710326
          Presidential  |   2.704984   4.325837     0.63   0.532    -5.773502    11.18347
                        |
                federal |   2.184102    3.25828     0.67   0.503     -4.20201    8.570214
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.615548   1.371017    -1.18   0.239    -4.302691    1.071595
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.794745   2.335989     3.34   0.001     3.216291     12.3732
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.820762   1.376672     2.78   0.006     1.122536    6.518989
          zee_gini_mean |  -.4967454   2.673026    -0.19   0.853     -5.73578    4.742289
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.187579   2.701229     3.03   0.002     2.893267    13.48189
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -3.772998   1.250876    -3.02   0.003     -6.22467   -1.321327
       zee_govfrac_mean |  -2.997166   1.304723    -2.30   0.022    -5.554376   -.4399573
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.951756   .3170833     6.16   0.000     1.330284    2.573228
             zee_gini_w |  -2.228254   .3935372    -5.66   0.000    -2.999573   -1.456936
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .4782211   .4423106     1.08   0.280    -.3886918    1.345134
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.646459   .2895402    -5.69   0.000    -2.213948   -1.078971
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .3445929   .4563279     0.76   0.450    -.5497934    1.238979
          zee_govfrac_w |  -.2556312   .4319891    -0.59   0.554    -1.102314    .5910519
         zee_time_trend |   2.475187   .5176314     4.78   0.000     1.460648    3.489726
                  _cons |   48.92642    2.01767    24.25   0.000     44.97186    52.88098
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   48.63944   11.42841      30.68943    77.08827
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.59124   5.702286      25.04076    47.78425
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.26378   3.586937       51.6411    65.73578
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   349.39   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. * Inspect residuals: Very few problematic cases
. predict resid, residuals

. predict resid_std, rstandard

. swilk resid_std

                   Shapiro-Wilk W test for normal data

    Variable |    Obs       W           V         z       Prob>z
-------------+--------------------------------------------------
   resid_std |    833    0.99221      4.163     3.505    0.00023

. sktest resid_std

                    Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality
                                                         ------- joint ------
    Variable |    Obs   Pr(Skewness)   Pr(Kurtosis)  adj chi2(2)    Prob>chi2
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
   resid_std |    833      0.2580         0.0000        16.53         0.0003

. qnorm resid_std

. 
. * Drop very large residuals to gauge their effect on the estimates
. drop if resid_std<=-3
(1 observation deleted)

. drop if resid_std>=2.2
(9 observations deleted)

. 
. *** Reestimate Model 2: Results are robust
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic  ///
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_govfrac_mean ///
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_govfrac_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -2969.4903  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2969.4897  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2969.4897  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       823

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.2         23
        elec_id |      299          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    348.91
Log likelihood = -2969.4897                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -3.030029   2.957656    -1.02   0.306    -8.826928     2.76687
          Presidential  |   2.522147   4.385696     0.58   0.565    -6.073658    11.11795
                        |
                federal |    2.25542   3.306593     0.68   0.495    -4.225383    8.736224
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.503551   1.389684    -1.08   0.279    -4.227282     1.22018
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   8.608055    2.37288     3.63   0.000     3.957296    13.25881
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.672121   1.398159     2.63   0.009     .9317802    6.412462
          zee_gini_mean |  -.5044647   2.711827    -0.19   0.852    -5.819548    4.810619
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   7.733519   2.739569     2.82   0.005     2.364063    13.10297
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -3.617658   1.270121    -2.85   0.004    -6.107049   -1.128266
       zee_govfrac_mean |  -2.727795   1.324057    -2.06   0.039    -5.322898   -.1326918
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.946515   .2939874     6.62   0.000      1.37031    2.522719
             zee_gini_w |  -2.352548   .3792622    -6.20   0.000    -3.095888   -1.609207
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5383774   .4186055     1.29   0.198    -.2820743    1.358829
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.545834   .2699637    -5.73   0.000    -2.074953   -1.016715
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .3967629   .4434578     0.89   0.371    -.4723984    1.265924
          zee_govfrac_w |  -.0925785   .4187863    -0.22   0.825    -.9133845    .7282276
         zee_time_trend |   2.838264   .5033585     5.64   0.000       1.8517    3.824828
                  _cons |   48.70001   2.045942    23.80   0.000     44.69004    52.70998
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   51.12342   11.82047      32.49449    80.43221
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   35.15958   5.300386      26.16515    47.24591
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   48.24057   2.983697      42.73318    54.45773
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   407.43   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. use "TSCS_temp.dta", clear // restore data

. 
. **************************************
. *** Model 3 (ENEP and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_enep1_mean  /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_enep1_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3055.7917  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3055.7887  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3055.7887  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    373.81
Log likelihood = -3055.7887                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -3.093507   2.700285    -1.15   0.252    -8.385968    2.198954
          Presidential  |   2.146288   4.043577     0.53   0.596    -5.778977    10.07155
                        |
                federal |   3.152151   3.049843     1.03   0.301    -2.825431    9.129732
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.143401   1.273725    -0.90   0.369    -3.639855    1.353053
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   6.597521   2.191544     3.01   0.003     2.302175    10.89287
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   4.206898   1.279887     3.29   0.001     1.698367     6.71543
          zee_gini_mean |   .1558479   2.386057     0.07   0.948    -4.520739    4.832434
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   9.078294   2.511433     3.61   0.000     4.155975    14.00061
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -2.703196   1.049394    -2.58   0.010     -4.75997   -.6464215
         zee_enep1_mean |  -4.063132   1.061599    -3.83   0.000    -6.143828   -1.982436
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.986869   .3162432     6.28   0.000     1.367044    2.606694
             zee_gini_w |   -2.22658   .3888907    -5.73   0.000    -2.988792   -1.464368
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5412279    .441451     1.23   0.220    -.3240002    1.406456
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.648377   .2892273    -5.70   0.000    -2.215252   -1.081502
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .5722347    .461821     1.24   0.215    -.3329179    1.477387
            zee_enep1_w |  -.9634716   .4523252    -2.13   0.033    -1.850013   -.0769305
         zee_time_trend |   2.448308   .5123873     4.78   0.000     1.444048    3.452569
                  _cons |   48.83657   1.877585    26.01   0.000     45.15657    52.51657
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   40.69353   9.861914      25.30697    65.43508
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   33.33346   5.569142       24.0252    46.24808
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.38857   3.592128      51.75604    65.87107
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   308.23   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. * Inspect residuals: Very few problematic cases
. predict resid, residuals

. predict resid_std, rstandard

. swilk resid_std

                   Shapiro-Wilk W test for normal data

    Variable |    Obs       W           V         z       Prob>z
-------------+--------------------------------------------------
   resid_std |    833    0.99250      4.006     3.411    0.00032

. sktest resid_std

                    Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality
                                                         ------- joint ------
    Variable |    Obs   Pr(Skewness)   Pr(Kurtosis)  adj chi2(2)    Prob>chi2
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
   resid_std |    833      0.2674         0.0000        16.04         0.0003

. qnorm resid_std

. 
. * Drop very large residuals to gauge their effect on the estimates
. drop if resid_std<=-3
(1 observation deleted)

. drop if resid_std>=2.3
(9 observations deleted)

. 
. * Reestimate Model 3: Results are robust
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_enep1_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_enep1_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -2963.6494  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2963.6487  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2963.6487  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       823

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.2         23
        elec_id |      299          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    393.38
Log likelihood = -2963.6487                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -3.097904   2.756974    -1.12   0.261    -8.501474    2.305667
          Presidential  |   1.964872    4.12238     0.48   0.634    -6.114844    10.04459
                        |
                federal |   3.173735   3.112878     1.02   0.308    -2.927394    9.274865
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.028817   1.299086    -0.79   0.428    -3.574978    1.517345
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.471243    2.23963     3.34   0.001     3.081648    11.86084
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   4.066988   1.307656     3.11   0.002     1.504029    6.629947
          zee_gini_mean |   .0526673   2.435171     0.02   0.983     -4.72018    4.825515
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.567342   2.561752     3.34   0.001       3.5464    13.58828
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -2.647326   1.071804    -2.47   0.014    -4.748023   -.5466297
         zee_enep1_mean |  -3.851015   1.084568    -3.55   0.000     -5.97673   -1.725301
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.973722   .2931947     6.73   0.000     1.399071    2.548373
             zee_gini_w |  -2.332833   .3750209    -6.22   0.000     -3.06786   -1.597805
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5991778   .4179071     1.43   0.152    -.2199051    1.418261
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.551022   .2696085    -5.75   0.000    -2.079445   -1.022599
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .6034553   .4485915     1.35   0.179    -.2757679    1.482679
            zee_enep1_w |  -.9292797   .4389813    -2.12   0.034    -1.789667   -.0688922
         zee_time_trend |   2.811485   .4984808     5.64   0.000     1.834481     3.78849
                  _cons |   48.60946    1.91508    25.38   0.000     44.85597    52.36295
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   43.55493   10.34876      27.33944    69.38811
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.02662   5.190587       25.2332    45.88442
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   48.31328   2.988315      42.79739    54.54008
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   363.71   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. use "TSCS_temp.dta", clear // restore data

. 
. ********************************
. *** Table 1: 5.)Collinearity ***
. ********************************
. *** Model 2 (Government Fractionalization and Gallagher Index)
. collin regime federal zee_al_ethnic zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_govfrac_mean zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_govfr
> ac_w 
(obs=833)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
    regime      2.90    1.70    0.3454      0.6546
   federal      1.29    1.14    0.7739      0.2261
zee_al_ethnic      2.01    1.42    0.4968      0.5032
zee_GDPpc_mean      4.73    2.17    0.2116      0.7884
zee_growth_rate_mean      1.83    1.35    0.5459      0.4541
zee_gini_mean      5.47    2.34    0.1830      0.8170
zee_icrg_qog_mean      7.10    2.66    0.1409      0.8591
zee_gallager_index_mean      1.28    1.13    0.7792      0.2208
zee_govfrac_mean      1.77    1.33    0.5662      0.4338
zee_growth_rate_w      1.00    1.00    0.9957      0.0043
zee_gini_w      1.02    1.01    0.9794      0.0206
zee_icrg_qog_w      1.03    1.01    0.9741      0.0259
zee_years_election_w      1.01    1.00    0.9924      0.0076
zee_gallager_index_w      1.04    1.02    0.9659      0.0341
zee_govfrac_w      1.02    1.01    0.9781      0.0219
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      2.30

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     3.6114          1.0000
    2     1.9007          1.3784
    3     1.4105          1.6001
    4     1.1627          1.7624
    5     1.1414          1.7787
    6     1.0570          1.8484
    7     0.9683          1.9312
    8     0.9311          1.9694
    9     0.8411          2.0721
    10     0.8351          2.0795
    11     0.7861          2.1433
    12     0.6004          2.4525
    13     0.3906          3.0406
    14     0.1829          4.4431
    15     0.1038          5.8976
    16     0.0768          6.8595
---------------------------------
 Condition Number         6.8595 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0059

. *** Model 3 (ENEP and Gallagher Index)
. collin regime federal zee_al_ethnic zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_enep1_mean zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_enep1_w
>  
(obs=833)

  Collinearity Diagnostics

                        SQRT                   R-
  Variable      VIF     VIF    Tolerance    Squared
----------------------------------------------------
    regime      2.88    1.70    0.3476      0.6524
   federal      1.34    1.16    0.7450      0.2550
zee_al_ethnic      1.94    1.39    0.5148      0.4852
zee_GDPpc_mean      4.88    2.21    0.2047      0.7953
zee_growth_rate_mean      1.83    1.35    0.5460      0.4540
zee_gini_mean      4.54    2.13    0.2204      0.7796
zee_icrg_qog_mean      7.17    2.68    0.1394      0.8606
zee_gallager_index_mean      1.06    1.03    0.9397      0.0603
zee_enep1_mean      1.27    1.13    0.7882      0.2118
zee_growth_rate_w      1.00    1.00    0.9975      0.0025
zee_gini_w      1.01    1.00    0.9925      0.0075
zee_icrg_qog_w      1.03    1.02    0.9664      0.0336
zee_years_election_w      1.01    1.00    0.9924      0.0076
zee_gallager_index_w      1.10    1.05    0.9079      0.0921
zee_enep1_w      1.09    1.04    0.9163      0.0837
----------------------------------------------------
  Mean VIF      2.21

                           Cond
        Eigenval          Index
---------------------------------
    1     3.5279          1.0000
    2     1.8534          1.3797
    3     1.3759          1.6013
    4     1.3413          1.6218
    5     1.0726          1.8136
    6     1.0021          1.8763
    7     0.9928          1.8851
    8     0.9472          1.9299
    9     0.8803          2.0019
    10     0.7976          2.1031
    11     0.7183          2.2162
    12     0.6806          2.2767
    13     0.4196          2.8995
    14     0.2049          4.1491
    15     0.1076          5.7250
    16     0.0778          6.7335
---------------------------------
 Condition Number         6.7335 
 Eigenvalues & Cond Index computed from scaled raw sscp (w/ intercept)
 Det(correlation matrix)    0.0077

. 
. ***************************************************************
. *** Table 1: 6.) Analyzing u0 and u1 (Country and Election) ***
. ***************************************************************
. *** Create temporary file of the used dataset
. save "TSCS_temp.dta", replace
file TSCS_temp.dta saved

. 
. **************************************************************
. *** Model 2 (Government Fractionalization and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic  /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_govfrac_mean  /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_govfrac_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance  

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3061.8917  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3061.8892  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3061.8892  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    326.36
Log likelihood = -3061.8892                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |   -3.00188   2.914444    -1.03   0.303    -8.714086    2.710326
          Presidential  |   2.704984   4.325837     0.63   0.532    -5.773502    11.18347
                        |
                federal |   2.184102    3.25828     0.67   0.503     -4.20201    8.570214
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.615548   1.371017    -1.18   0.239    -4.302691    1.071595
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   7.794745   2.335989     3.34   0.001     3.216291     12.3732
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.820762   1.376672     2.78   0.006     1.122536    6.518989
          zee_gini_mean |  -.4967454   2.673026    -0.19   0.853     -5.73578    4.742289
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   8.187579   2.701229     3.03   0.002     2.893267    13.48189
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -3.772998   1.250876    -3.02   0.003     -6.22467   -1.321327
       zee_govfrac_mean |  -2.997166   1.304723    -2.30   0.022    -5.554376   -.4399573
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.951756   .3170833     6.16   0.000     1.330284    2.573228
             zee_gini_w |  -2.228254   .3935372    -5.66   0.000    -2.999573   -1.456936
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .4782211   .4423106     1.08   0.280    -.3886918    1.345134
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.646459   .2895402    -5.69   0.000    -2.213948   -1.078971
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .3445929   .4563279     0.76   0.450    -.5497934    1.238979
          zee_govfrac_w |  -.2556312   .4319891    -0.59   0.554    -1.102314    .5910519
         zee_time_trend |   2.475187   .5176314     4.78   0.000     1.460648    3.489726
                  _cons |   48.92642    2.01767    24.25   0.000     44.97186    52.88098
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   48.63944   11.42841      30.68943    77.08827
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   34.59124   5.702286      25.04076    47.78425
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.26378   3.586937       51.6411    65.73578
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   349.39   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. predict u_country u_election, reffects 

. 
. * Search for influential cases at the country level
. sort u_country

. gen rank0= _n

. bysort country: egen secuencia0=seq()

. scatter u_country rank0 if secuencia0==1, mlabel(country) yline(0) // Uruguay, Italy

. twoway (scatter u_country zee_gallager_index_mean  if secuencia0==1, mlabel(country) sort) (lfit u_country zee_gallager_index_mean if secuencia0==1, sort) // Uruguay, Italy, Denmark

. twoway (scatter u_country zee_govfrac_mean  if secuencia0==1, mlabel(country) sort) (lfit u_country zee_govfrac_mean if secuencia0==1, sort) // Uruguay, Italy, Denmark

. 
. * gen country dummies
. gen Uruguay = 0

. replace Uruguay = 1 if country=="Uruguay"
(17 real changes made)

. gen Denmark = 0

. replace Denmark = 1 if country=="Denmark"
(22 real changes made)

. gen Italy = 0

. replace Italy = 1 if country=="Italy"
(21 real changes made)

. 
. * Search for influential cases at the election level (the within term of government fractionalization is a country-year level variable and therefore not covered here)
. sort u_election

. gen rank1= _n

. bysort elec_id: egen secuencia1=seq()

. scatter u_election rank1 if secuencia1==1, mlabel() yline(0)

. twoway (scatter u_election zee_gallager_index_w  if secuencia1==1, mlabel(elec_id) sort) (lfit u_election zee_gallager_index_w if secuencia1==1, sort)

. 
. * gen election period dummies
. tab elec_id if u_election<-10

                 Election identifier |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
-------------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                     L-BEL-1995-5-21 |          2       18.18       18.18
                    L-BUL-1994-12-18 |          3       27.27       45.45
                     L-IRE-2011-2-25 |          2       18.18       63.64
                      L-ITA-1992-4-5 |          2       18.18       81.82
                      L-POR-2011-6-5 |          2       18.18      100.00
-------------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                               Total |         11      100.00

. gen BEL_1995 =0

. replace BEL_1995 =1 if elec_id=="L-BEL-1995-5-21"
(2 real changes made)

. gen BUL_1994 =0

. replace BUL_1994 =1 if elec_id=="L-BUL-1994-12-18"
(3 real changes made)

. gen IRE_2011 =0

. replace IRE_2011 =1 if elec_id=="L-IRE-2011-2-25"
(2 real changes made)

. gen POR_2011 =0

. replace POR_2011 =1 if elec_id=="L-POR-2011-6-5"
(2 real changes made)

. gen ITA_1992 =0

. replace ITA_1992 =1 if elec_id=="L-ITA-1992-4-5"
(2 real changes made)

. 
. tab elec_id if u_election>10

                 Election identifier |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
-------------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                      L-PAN-2009-5-3 |          4       40.00       40.00
                     L-POR-1987-7-19 |          1       10.00       50.00
                     L-POR-1991-10-6 |          5       50.00      100.00
-------------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                               Total |         10      100.00

. gen PAN_2009 =0

. replace PAN_2009 =1 if elec_id=="L-PAN-2009-5-3"
(4 real changes made)

. gen POR_1991 =0

. replace POR_1991 =1 if elec_id=="L-POR-1991-10-6"
(5 real changes made)

. gen POR_1987 =0

. replace POR_1987 =1 if elec_id=="L-POR-1987-7-19"
(1 real change made)

. gen TUR_2002 =0

. replace TUR_2002 =1 if elec_id=="L-TUR-2002-11-3"
(4 real changes made)

. 
. * Reestimate Model 2: Results are robust
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_govfrac_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_govfrac_w zee_time_trend ///
> Uruguay Denmark Italy BEL_1995 BUL_1994 IRE_2011 POR_2011 ITA_1992 PAN_2009 POR_1991 POR_1987 TUR_2002 || country: || elec_id: , mle variance  

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -3013.974  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3013.9424  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3013.9424  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(29)      =    566.50
Log likelihood = -3013.9424                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -2.421486   2.457173    -0.99   0.324    -7.237458    2.394485
          Presidential  |  -1.674136   3.730609    -0.45   0.654    -8.985994    5.637722
                        |
                federal |   3.748941   2.709335     1.38   0.166    -1.561258     9.05914
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.708684   1.154275    -1.48   0.139    -3.971021    .5536533
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   9.298616   1.999048     4.65   0.000     5.380553    13.21668
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   3.135727    1.17418     2.67   0.008     .8343768    5.437078
          zee_gini_mean |   1.243116   2.255419     0.55   0.582    -3.177425    5.663657
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   6.711504   2.325384     2.89   0.004     2.153835    11.26917
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -3.359529   1.048574    -3.20   0.001    -5.414698   -1.304361
       zee_govfrac_mean |  -3.077472   1.077534    -2.86   0.004      -5.1894   -.9655448
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.974939   .3050645     6.47   0.000     1.377024    2.572855
             zee_gini_w |  -2.188164   .3602765    -6.07   0.000    -2.894293   -1.482036
         zee_icrg_qog_w |    .712138   .4130771     1.72   0.085    -.0974783    1.521754
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.801359    .283382    -6.36   0.000    -2.356778    -1.24594
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .3963429    .431676     0.92   0.359    -.4497264    1.242412
          zee_govfrac_w |  -.0662621   .3857224    -0.17   0.864     -.822264    .6897399
         zee_time_trend |   2.860442   .4708455     6.08   0.000     1.937602    3.783282
                Uruguay |   24.85128   6.756139     3.68   0.000     11.60949    38.09307
                Denmark |   15.01935   6.548437     2.29   0.022     2.184649    27.85405
                  Italy |  -17.23888   6.969037    -2.47   0.013    -30.89794   -3.579816
               BEL_1995 |  -30.20487   7.447343    -4.06   0.000    -44.80139   -15.60835
               BUL_1994 |  -18.42147   6.893507    -2.67   0.008     -31.9325   -4.910449
               IRE_2011 |  -23.85751   7.584833    -3.15   0.002    -38.72351   -8.991508
               POR_2011 |  -23.10506   7.573234    -3.05   0.002    -37.94833   -8.261794
               ITA_1992 |  -19.56442     7.6075    -2.57   0.010    -34.47485   -4.653994
               PAN_2009 |   19.62627   6.803344     2.88   0.004      6.29196    32.96058
               POR_1991 |   18.02247    6.28608     2.87   0.004     5.701977    30.34296
               POR_1987 |    32.4174   9.357474     3.46   0.001     14.07709    50.75771
               TUR_2002 |   8.352136   7.485922     1.12   0.265    -6.320001    23.02427
                  _cons |   49.79566   1.774714    28.06   0.000     46.31728    53.27404
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   32.15706   7.894414      19.87514    52.02864
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   20.05785   4.179919      13.33214    30.17651
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   57.83837   3.510719      51.35102    65.14527
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   229.81   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. use "TSCS_temp.dta", clear // restore data

. 
. **************************************
. *** Model 3 (ENEP and Gallagher Index)
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_enep1_mean /// 
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_enep1_w zee_time_trend || country: || elec_id: , mle variance

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3055.7917  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3055.7887  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3055.7887  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(17)      =    373.81
Log likelihood = -3055.7887                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -3.093507   2.700285    -1.15   0.252    -8.385968    2.198954
          Presidential  |   2.146288   4.043577     0.53   0.596    -5.778977    10.07155
                        |
                federal |   3.152151   3.049843     1.03   0.301    -2.825431    9.129732
          zee_al_ethnic |  -1.143401   1.273725    -0.90   0.369    -3.639855    1.353053
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   6.597521   2.191544     3.01   0.003     2.302175    10.89287
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   4.206898   1.279887     3.29   0.001     1.698367     6.71543
          zee_gini_mean |   .1558479   2.386057     0.07   0.948    -4.520739    4.832434
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   9.078294   2.511433     3.61   0.000     4.155975    14.00061
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -2.703196   1.049394    -2.58   0.010     -4.75997   -.6464215
         zee_enep1_mean |  -4.063132   1.061599    -3.83   0.000    -6.143828   -1.982436
      zee_growth_rate_w |   1.986869   .3162432     6.28   0.000     1.367044    2.606694
             zee_gini_w |   -2.22658   .3888907    -5.73   0.000    -2.988792   -1.464368
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .5412279    .441451     1.23   0.220    -.3240002    1.406456
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.648377   .2892273    -5.70   0.000    -2.215252   -1.081502
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .5722347    .461821     1.24   0.215    -.3329179    1.477387
            zee_enep1_w |  -.9634716   .4523252    -2.13   0.033    -1.850013   -.0769305
         zee_time_trend |   2.448308   .5123873     4.78   0.000     1.444048    3.452569
                  _cons |   48.83657   1.877585    26.01   0.000     45.15657    52.51657
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   40.69353   9.861914      25.30697    65.43508
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   33.33346   5.569142       24.0252    46.24808
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.38857   3.592128      51.75604    65.87107
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   308.23   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. predict u_country u_election, reffects 

. 
. * Search for influential cases at the country level
. sort u_country

. gen rank0= _n

. bysort country: egen secuencia0=seq()

. scatter u_country rank0 if secuencia0==1, mlabel(country) yline(0) // Uruguay, Denmark

. twoway (scatter u_country zee_enep1_mean  if secuencia0==1, mlabel(country) sort) (lfit u_country zee_enep1_mean if secuencia0==1, sort) // Uruguay, Denmark, Belgium, Brazil

. twoway (scatter u_country zee_gallager_index_mean  if secuencia0==1, mlabel(country) sort) (lfit u_country zee_gallager_index_mean if secuencia0==1, sort) // Uruguay, Denmark, France

. 
. * gen country dummies
. gen Uruguay = 0

. replace Uruguay = 1 if country=="Uruguay"
(17 real changes made)

. gen Denmark = 0

. replace Denmark = 1 if country=="Denmark"
(22 real changes made)

. gen Belgium = 0

. replace Belgium = 1 if country=="Belgium"
(21 real changes made)

. gen Brazil = 0

. replace Brazil = 1 if country=="Brazil"
(17 real changes made)

. gen France = 0

. replace France = 1 if country=="France"
(22 real changes made)

. 
. * Search for influential cases at the election level
. sort u_election

. gen rank1= _n

. bysort elec_id: egen secuencia1=seq()

. scatter u_election rank1 if secuencia1==1, mlabel() yline(0)

. twoway (scatter u_election zee_enep1_w  if secuencia1==1, mlabel(elec_id) sort) (lfit u_election zee_enep1_w if secuencia1==1, sort)

. twoway (scatter u_election zee_gallager_index_w  if secuencia1==1, mlabel(elec_id) sort) (lfit u_election zee_gallager_index_w if secuencia1==1, sort)

. 
. * gen election period dummies
. tab elec_id if u_election<-10

                 Election identifier |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
-------------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                     L-BEL-1995-5-21 |          2       22.22       22.22
                    L-BUL-1994-12-18 |          3       33.33       55.56
                     L-IRE-2011-2-25 |          2       22.22       77.78
                      L-POR-2011-6-5 |          2       22.22      100.00
-------------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                               Total |          9      100.00

. gen BEL_1995 =0

. replace BEL_1995 =1 if elec_id=="L-BEL-1995-5-21"
(2 real changes made)

. gen BUL_1994 =0

. replace BUL_1994 =1 if elec_id=="L-BUL-1994-12-18"
(3 real changes made)

. gen IRE_2011 =0

. replace IRE_2011 =1 if elec_id=="L-IRE-2011-2-25"
(2 real changes made)

. gen POR_2011 =0

. replace POR_2011 =1 if elec_id=="L-POR-2011-6-5"
(2 real changes made)

. gen COL_2006 =0

. replace COL_2006 =1 if elec_id=="L-COL-2006-3-12"
(4 real changes made)

. gen BRA_2010 =0

. replace BRA_2010 =1 if elec_id=="L-BRA-2010-10-3"
(3 real changes made)

. 
. tab elec_id if u_election>10

                 Election identifier |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
-------------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                      L-PAN-2009-5-3 |          4       40.00       40.00
                     L-POR-1987-7-19 |          1       10.00       50.00
                     L-POR-1991-10-6 |          5       50.00      100.00
-------------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                               Total |         10      100.00

. gen PAN_2009 =0

. replace PAN_2009 =1 if elec_id=="L-PAN-2009-5-3"
(4 real changes made)

. gen POR_1991 =0

. replace POR_1991 =1 if elec_id=="L-POR-1991-10-6"
(5 real changes made)

. gen POR_1987 =0

. replace POR_1987 =1 if elec_id=="L-POR-1987-7-19"
(1 real change made)

. gen TUR_2002 =0

. replace TUR_2002 =1 if elec_id=="L-TUR-2002-11-3"
(4 real changes made)

. 
. * Reestimate Model 3: Results are robust
. xtmixed swd_perc i.regime federal zee_al_ethnic /// 
> zee_GDPpc_mean zee_growth_rate_mean zee_gini_mean zee_icrg_qog_mean zee_gallager_index_mean zee_enep1_mean ///
> zee_growth_rate_w zee_gini_w zee_icrg_qog_w zee_years_election_w zee_gallager_index_w zee_enep1_w zee_time_trend  /// 
> Uruguay Denmark Belgium Brazil France BEL_1995 BUL_1994 IRE_2011 POR_2011 PAN_2009 POR_1991 POR_1987 TUR_2002 COL_2006 BRA_2010 || country: || elec_id: , mle variance 

Performing EM optimization: 

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -3003.2794  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -3003.2324  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -3003.2324  

Computing standard errors:

Mixed-effects ML regression                     Number of obs      =       833

-----------------------------------------------------------
                |   No. of       Observations per Group
 Group Variable |   Groups    Minimum    Average    Maximum
----------------+------------------------------------------
        country |       58          4       14.4         23
        elec_id |      300          1        2.8          6
-----------------------------------------------------------

                                                Wald chi2(32)      =    705.92
Log likelihood = -3003.2324                     Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               swd_perc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 regime |
     Semi-Presidential  |  -2.239279   2.192358    -1.02   0.307    -6.536221    2.057664
          Presidential  |   .4790383   3.232502     0.15   0.882    -5.856549    6.814625
                        |
                federal |   2.384112   2.606936     0.91   0.360    -2.725388    7.493612
          zee_al_ethnic |  -.5816783   1.009341    -0.58   0.564     -2.55995    1.396593
         zee_GDPpc_mean |   5.975381   1.745924     3.42   0.001     2.553432     9.39733
   zee_growth_rate_mean |   5.487563   1.046761     5.24   0.000     3.435949    7.539176
          zee_gini_mean |   .0189008   1.931307     0.01   0.992    -3.766391    3.804192
      zee_icrg_qog_mean |   9.586919   1.962864     4.88   0.000     5.739777    13.43406
zee_gallager_index_mean |  -2.675797   .9693597    -2.76   0.006    -4.575707   -.7758863
         zee_enep1_mean |  -6.099341   1.040014    -5.86   0.000    -8.137731    -4.06095
      zee_growth_rate_w |   2.011246    .303966     6.62   0.000     1.415484    2.607009
             zee_gini_w |  -2.068958   .3551322    -5.83   0.000    -2.765004   -1.372912
         zee_icrg_qog_w |   .6683586   .4096417     1.63   0.103    -.1345244    1.471242
   zee_years_election_w |  -1.763986   .2832429    -6.23   0.000    -2.319132    -1.20884
   zee_gallager_index_w |   .7839668   .4303738     1.82   0.069    -.0595503    1.627484
            zee_enep1_w |   -1.07501   .3970282    -2.71   0.007    -1.853171   -.2968486
         zee_time_trend |   2.782475    .464234     5.99   0.000     1.872594    3.692357
                Uruguay |   19.52294   5.951835     3.28   0.001     7.857563    31.18833
                Denmark |   19.18077    5.66552     3.39   0.001     8.076554    30.28499
                Belgium |   20.72229    6.78392     3.05   0.002      7.42605    34.01853
                 Brazil |   12.68036   7.155097     1.77   0.076     -1.34337     26.7041
                 France |   14.81999   6.609685     2.24   0.025     1.865248    27.77474
               BEL_1995 |  -31.60132   7.378645    -4.28   0.000     -46.0632   -17.13944
               BUL_1994 |  -18.78326   6.691159    -2.81   0.005    -31.89769   -5.668829
               IRE_2011 |  -23.57963    7.41193    -3.18   0.001    -38.10674   -9.052511
               POR_2011 |  -22.25215   7.401304    -3.01   0.003    -36.75845   -7.745865
               PAN_2009 |   18.50872   6.558563     2.82   0.005     5.654172    31.36327
               POR_1991 |    17.5871   6.102067     2.88   0.004     5.627264    29.54693
               POR_1987 |    32.0688   9.245937     3.47   0.001      13.9471    50.19051
               TUR_2002 |   7.025177   7.218195     0.97   0.330    -7.122226    21.17258
               COL_2006 |   14.21271   6.429913     2.21   0.027     1.610311    26.81511
               BRA_2010 |   16.08868   6.952903     2.31   0.021     2.461242    29.71612
                  _cons |   47.54867   1.486645    31.98   0.000      44.6349    50.46244
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
country: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   22.51555   5.995361      13.36065    37.94351
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
elec_id: Identity            |
                  var(_cons) |   18.36085    4.04186      11.92653    28.26649
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
               var(Residual) |   58.20096   3.544928      51.65172    65.58061
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear regression:       chi2(2) =   162.39   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Note: LR test is conservative and provided only for reference.

. 
. use "TSCS_temp.dta", clear // restore data

. 
. ***************************************************************************
. *** Results for Table 1 are robust on every tested aspect, end analysis ***
. ***************************************************************************
. log close TSCS_Log
      name:  TSCS_Log
       log:  C:\PSRM Replication Files\TSCS_analysis.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  16 May 2017, 08:06:48
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
